What leverage Pakistan really has over the Taliban? | Rustam Ali Seerat

Pakistan and the Taliban were once described as locked in a predictable relationship: patron and proxy, manager and managed. In the latest episode of Afghanistan in Review, that assumption is put under the microscope and it does not survive contact with reality.

Host Rajab Taieb is joined by Dr Rostam Ali Seerat, a regional affairs researcher with a PhD in International Relations, to unpack why Taliban–Pakistan ties have frayed since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, and why recent clashes and failed talks look less like a temporary dispute and more like a structural shift.

Seerat argues that Pakistan’s posture shifted after the fall of the previous Afghan government removed the deterrent effect of international backing, leaving the Taliban weaker and more exposed. He also offers a sharper, more controversial frame: the tension is not “staged”, but it can be convenient for both sides, helping justify security spending and sustain security structures that have become politically and economically entrenched.

The conversation then widens beyond the border. Seerat links Taliban–Pakistan friction to a broader regional recalibration, including India’s engagement with the Taliban and the risk that India–Pakistan competition increasingly plays out inside Afghanistan. He suggests the Taliban may “metamorphose” into a more nationalistic governing force over time, both to remain in power and to navigate regional pressures, with consequences for internal politics and external alliances.

Finally, the episode resists treating Afghans as a single category. Seerat stresses that Taliban policies and the regional environment will shape different ethnic and political constituencies in markedly different ways, influencing who feels secure enough to invest, return, or resist.