How Intelligence Operations and Militancy Evolve in a Post-Taliban Afghanistan with Sarah Adams

In this gripping edition of The Intelligence Spotlight, we speak with Sarah Adams, a seasoned national security expert and former CIA targeting officer. With a background in counterterrorism and intelligence analysis, Sarah has worked at the heart of US efforts against terrorist networks, particularly in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Libya.

She previously advised the US House Select Committee on Benghazi and co-authored Benghazi: Know Thy Enemy, a detailed investigative account of the 2012 attacks in Libya. Today, her focus remains firmly on Afghanistan and the rapidly evolving threats emerging from the region.

From sports to spycraft

Surprisingly, Sarah admits she wasn't exactly the academic type in high school. “I liked sports more than anything,” she laughs. But her career took a sharp turn when she joined the CIA, initially as an analyst. Just weeks into the job, she knew she wanted to be in operations, not writing reports. She told her boss, who promptly moved her into a targeting officer role.

Her job became clear: identify threats, map networks, and support field operatives by finding the people who needed to be found. “It was born out of necessity. Case officers needed someone who could do this kind of work, so it became its own profession,” she explains.

While stationed in Pakistan, open-source intelligence (OSINT) played a critical role. “One of the groups I worked on hadn't been a collection priority, so I built the entire project using open-source data. My first report didn't include a single classified source,” she recalls. It was an unusual move inside the CIA, but it worked.

Afghanistan’s shifting landscape

Since the Taliban takeover, Sarah says the loss of intelligence access has been staggering. “CENTCOM’s own commander said we lost 98 to 99 percent of our collection. That means we’re now relying almost entirely on what the Taliban chooses to tell us.”

According to Sarah, nearly every major actor is running intelligence operations inside Afghanistan. China, Russia, Iran, India and Pakistan all have eyes and ears in the region. “India is operating a de facto consulate out of Kandahar. Pakistan has long-standing ties, although those relationships are turning on them now.”

But the most under-discussed player, she warns, is Iran. “Iran has evolved significantly. They used to back small proxy groups. Now they're working directly with the Taliban and even Al Qaeda.”

The ‘three heads of the snake’

When asked who is running the show inside Afghanistan’s new power structure, Sarah names three key figures: Mullah Yaqub (Taliban military chief), Sirajuddin Haqqani (Taliban Interior Minister), and Hamza bin Laden (son of Osama and de facto head of Al Qaeda). All three, she notes, are connected through marriage.

“They operate as a unified force. Mullah Omar’s son. Jalaluddin Haqqani’s son. Bin Laden’s son. If you don’t understand that this is a trifecta, you're missing the whole picture,” she explains.

According to Sarah, Hamza bin Laden is more aggressive than his father ever was. “Osama was patient. Hamza is not. He is operationally driven and willing to take risks his father would not have taken.”

The Taliban’s smokescreen

Sarah is critical of how Western media portrays factions within the Taliban. “There's no big ideological split. They want you to believe there is. It’s a smokescreen,” she says. “They’re all working together, including Haibatullah Akhundzada, the supposed reclusive Supreme Leader. He’s in regular contact with Sirajuddin Haqqani.”

She views the narrative of a ‘pragmatic Haqqani faction’ as deliberate propaganda, designed to distract foreign diplomats and governments. “The New York Times ran two major pieces in the past few years presenting Haqqani as a statesman. It’s dishonest,” she says.

Iran, proxies, and the rise of a new jihadi alliance

Iran’s shift from backing only Shia militias to supporting Sunni groups like Hamas and Al Qaeda signals a strategic realignment, according to Sarah.

“Historically, Iran sheltered Al Qaeda leaders. They built trust by keeping their families safe. Now they're seeing results. The training for the October 7th attacks began in Afghanistan. A third of the attackers trained there. Al Qaeda, the IRGC’s intelligence wing, Hamas and the Taliban were all involved,” she reveals.

She warns that a second wave of attacks is already underway, designed to appear as acts by ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province), but in fact orchestrated by Al Qaeda to conceal their hand and avoid direct retaliation.

What the West keeps getting wrong

Sarah says Western intelligence missed the signs leading up to October 7th and has failed to grasp what she believes is a broader coordinated strategy. “There’s a sequence of attacks. The next targets include US embassies and Europe. The final goal is a large-scale attack on American soil,” she says.

The obsession with Russia and China, she argues, has blinded Washington to the growing threat in Afghanistan. “Resources were shifted to Ukraine. Counterterrorism was sidelined. And now we’re reacting rather than anticipating.”

Disinformation and the ISKP myth

Sarah doesn’t mince words about how ISKP has been used by both the Taliban and the West. “There are two branches. The one everyone talks about, led by Sanaullah Ghafari, and a second branch led by Gulmorod Halimov, operating in Takhar and Badakhshan. Most people don’t even realise this.”

She says the Taliban uses ISKP as a tool. “They kill dissidents or rivals and claim it was ISKP. They feed that information to the US. And the US believes it because they have no alternative sources.”

Trump, Doha, and what lies ahead

On Donald Trump’s return to power, Sarah is cautious. “There’s no serious planning for a return to Bagram airfield. You can’t negotiate that back. And while Trump may want to rip up the Doha agreement, his own party is split. When a Republican congresswoman proposed designating the Taliban as a terrorist group, her own party blocked it.”

Sarah believes the Biden and potential Trump administrations share a dangerous trait — both want to move on. “They want to focus on China. But Afghanistan isn’t finished with us yet.”

Final word

Her warning is clear: “The Taliban, Al Qaeda and Iran are not dormant. They’re collaborating, planning and evolving. The West is being outmanoeuvred. And unless we act, we’ll be blindsided again.”