Diplomacy Without a State With Mahmoud Saikal, Former Permanent Representative of Afghanistan to the United Nations
In an era shaped by retreating multilateralism and the corrosion of international norms, few voices bring the clarity and experience of Ambassador Mahmoud Saikal. Formerly Afghanistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs, Saikal joined The Intelligence Spotlight for a wide-ranging discussion on diplomacy, soft power, and the perilous path facing Afghanistan.
“I developed a keen interest in architecture when I was in year nine at Lycée Esteqlal in Kabul,” Saikal said, smiling as he recalled a dream that briefly predated politics. “Eventually I got two degrees in architecture and worked in Australia. But architecture helped me become a more practical diplomat. When foreign ministers spoke in theory, I spoke of getting the job done.”
Such pragmatism underscores Saikal’s view of the current geopolitical climate. The world, he argues, has entered a post-truth era, one in which “objective facts are less influential than emotion,” where the explosion of social media has “fuelled the transmission of disinformation and conspiracy theories.” For Afghanistan’s diaspora, already scattered across dozens of countries, the challenge is twofold: to remain visible, and to remain strategically relevant.
Soft power, he believes, is one of the few remaining levers. “It is the ability to influence others through cultural and economic means rather than force,” he said. “Afghanistan has always had soft power potential — our hospitality, music, costumes, our diverse poetry. Look at Rumi, whose face is sold in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar centuries after his death. These are not just heritage, they are assets.”
But Saikal cautions that such assets can only bear fruit under legitimate governance. “The Taliban currently control most of these potentials,” he said, “and are trading them to strengthen their military and ideological grip.” Without a legitimate state, soft power remains latent, held hostage by a regime that offers neither legal recognition nor moral authority.
So what can the diaspora do? “Diplomatic skills matter, yes — but so does coordination. We have former ministers, ambassadors, civil society leaders spread around the world, meeting individually with foreign governments. But without internal unity and a common strategy, those efforts often fall flat.” Saikal warns that attention gained in capitals or at the UN risks being wasted if opposition actors have no coherent framework to absorb and respond.
He recalled instances, both in government and Track II diplomacy, where interest from international figures evaporated after poor follow-up. “I’ve worked with global leaders who were ready to support our cause. But without a credible Afghan partner to deliver, they walked away. One former UN official I worked with is now completely disheartened.”
The conversation also touched on his 2023 op-ed in The Spectator, which framed mass migration from Afghanistan as a foreign policy failure tied directly to Taliban rule. “The solution is not just to accept refugees but to restore Afghanistan as a habitable country,” he said. “We must talk about legitimacy. Without it, everything — soft power, diplomacy, economic progress — is cosmetic.”
Saikal’s reflections were not simply critical. They carried a sense of personal reckoning. “We need a comprehensive review of the Republic years. What did we do right? What did we get catastrophically wrong? The Taliban are a disaster, yes, but what comes after must not be a return to personalised rule or political patronage.”
He cited the failure to uphold Afghanistan’s 2004 constitution as a turning point. “When President Karzai’s term ended in 2009, he should have stood before the nation with the constitution in hand. Instead, he extended his term through the Supreme Court. That moment betrayed the rule of law — and President Ghani followed the same path.”
But even in the bleakest assessments, Saikal remains committed to hope. “I remember reading Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom when the Taliban first took Kabul in the 1990s. It helped me understand the long game. We Afghans have stood up before, and we can do it again. But this time, we must build systems — not personalities.”
What would that system look like? Saikal suggests a transition period culminating in a public referendum on the future of governance. Whether decentralised, federal, or parliamentary, he says, “let the people decide — not foreign powers, not individual warlords.”
It is a sober vision, anchored in hard-earned experience and marred by bitter disappointment. But it is also rooted in realism. For Saikal, Afghanistan’s future will be determined not just by resistance but by the integrity and unity of those who seek to replace the regime. “We cannot afford to fail again,” he said. “Our people deserve more than recycled mistakes.”
