Afghanistan is drying out and flooding at the same time

Afghanistan’s climate crisis is often reduced to one word: drought. But in reality, it is a country living through extremes at once, long dry spells, then sudden bursts of intense rainfall that trigger flash floods and tear through fragile infrastructure. In the latest episode of Afghanistan in Review, host Qais Alamdar speaks with Dr Najibullah Sadid to unpack how Afghanistan’s water system actually works, and why it is now under strain.

Sadid explains that Afghanistan’s water story begins in the mountains. Winter precipitation, often falling as snow, is crucial because it slowly feeds rivers and groundwater over time. He also notes that parts of eastern Afghanistan receive summer moisture linked to the monsoon, a pattern that helps sustain forests but is also changing, with more localised and intense rain events increasing flash flood risk.

A key part of the discussion is geography: Afghanistan is not one water system, but several. Sadid breaks the country down into major river basins with very different realities. The Amu Darya basin in the northeast generates significant renewable water, but has limited agricultural land. The Kabul River basin produces substantial water too, but the upper parts around Kabul are far drier than the lower basin areas like Nangarhar and Kunar. Meanwhile, the Helmand basin is the country’s largest in area, draining roughly 40% of Afghanistan, yet remains one of the driest, despite supporting vast agricultural land and major population centres.

The episode then turns to the urban pressure point: groundwater. Sadid warns that groundwater is treated as if it is endless because regulation is weak, but aquifers can and do run out, pushing communities to migrate toward cities that are not prepared for rapid urbanisation. He also cautions against simplistic fixes, such as burying snow to replenish deep aquifers, explaining that it may help soil moisture but is unlikely to reach the deeper groundwater layers cities rely on.

So what’s the path forward? Sadid argues for a more strategic split between water for agriculture and for energy, including hydropower potential in the Amu Darya and Kabul basins, paired with a hard shift away from inefficient irrigation that wastes large volumes of water.

The message is blunt: Afghanistan does not just need more water. It needs better management of what it already has.